Segment #1 Updates: TD securities believes that loss-aversion will be a growing theme in 2020 and that a move of gold above $1,500 will re-ignite the rally. Remember, gold’s most recent high was $1,550 so a rise from the current range of $1,460 is not a huge task. Georgette Boele, Senior FX and precious metals strategist at ABN AMRO said recently that she is bullish on precious metals for 2020 stating that even with modest corrections $1,600 is in the cards. Finally, according to Bloomberg intelligence, new record high prices are in store for gold in 2020. “Gold is the divergent strength standout. Up almost 15% in 2019 despite the 2% gain in the trade-weighted broad dollar indicates the metal is on solid footing for further advancement”, according to Senior commodity strategist Mick McGlone.
Central bank gold demand officially hit a new multi-decade high. Indebendent commodity analyst Matthew Turner noted that central bank gold purchases totaled 550 tons as of October. More than 2018 which saw the biggest buying spree in 50 years. What do central banks know that it be wise to consider holding gold as part of a diversified portfolio?
According to Sovereign Man Simon Black, over the last 12 months the price of gold is up almost 21% outperforming evertyhing from the S&P 500, stock markets in China, Europe, Canada, plus bonds, real estate and even major commodities like oil. Gold has even outpaced Netfilx, Tesla and Amazon.
Segment #2: What Happens to Gold if the Comex Collapses is a recent article written by Lawrence Williams. He takes the work of Dr. Fraser Murrell, a PHD in mathmatics and follower of the gold market. The premise is that the Comex has a history of using paper to control gold & silver pricing. However, in the absence of physical bullion the contracts are actually worthless. When physical goes into hiding what good does a paper contract that has been cash settled worth? What can the cash buy if there is no gold or silver to buy? You can see how in a world that demands actual physical metal the paper contracts will not be of any benefit. At some point the Comex will have to cash settle. Where could the price go when it does? Looking back at history, Dr. Murrell believes a 6X move could be a reasonable advance. That puts gold close to $9,000/Oz USD.
Segment #3, #4, & #5: We continue our Comex Collapse discussion bringing up an article written by Gata’s Chris Powell commenting on Craig Hemke’s recent research about Exchange for Physical or (EFPs) titled Those ‘exchange for physicals’ at the Comex aren’t real. The assertion is that what was once a rare back door occurrence has turned into a virtual flood and regular occurrence for the Comex. When looking closely at the number of EFP’s, one can determine that there is not enough physical to satisfy the demand. So what gives? Exchanging a paper promise on the Comex for an ‘Over The Counter’/non reported physical promise in London is the equivalent to a default. It is a game that cannot last and when it blows up, Dr. Murrell’s prediction of a 6X move in gold could be low.
Segment #6: How many Internally Flawless Vivid Yellow Diamonds of Radiant and Cushion Cut come to market every year? Less than 100. That is not to say that these are perfectly measured stones. They could be shallow or deep, or long, or too wide. Once you zero in on the type of stone that would be offered by Guildhall Wealth you could be down to under 40 diamonds a year. That is how rare a vivid yellow diamond at Guildhall is.